Distribution Completion, Targeting Accuracy, And Cost-Effectiveness Of Government Food Reserve Disbursement: A Quasi-Experimental Study Of Indonesia's February-March 2026 Food Assistance Program

Abstract

This study evaluates the operational effectiveness, cost-efficiency, and sustainability risk of Indonesia's Government Food Reserve (Cadangan Pangan Pemerintah/CPP) rice and cooking-oil disbursement during the February-March 2026 cycle, covering all 514 districts/cities and 33.24 million target beneficiaries. Using post-audit administrative data, we classify districts by distribution completion (100% versus incomplete disbursement, n=31/514) and apply propensity score matching (PSM), with covariates drawn from the 2025 national Food Security Index (Indeks Ketahanan Pangan/IKP), to estimate the average treatment effect of complete disbursement on audit-verified targeting accuracy. After matching (30 of 31 incomplete-disbursement districts matched within caliper), the estimated effect on targeting accuracy is small and not statistically significant (ATT = -0.00013, SE = 0.00010, p = 0.199), indicating that incomplete disbursement is not associated with materially worse targeting quality once baseline food-security conditions and administrative risk tier are controlled for. Cost-benefit analysis shows non-transporter operational cost (BOP) of IDR 177.2 billion delivered IDR 10,473.3 billion in commodity value at official reference prices (benefit-cost ratio = 59.1), while cost-effectiveness varies more than two-and-a-half-fold across regional offices (IDR 183-528 per kilogram-equivalent). An illustrative, literature-calibrated Social Return on Investment places social value between IDR 194.9 and 11,517.2 billion. Districts with the lowest disbursement completion are concentrated in Papua's highland districts, which also register the lowest food-security scores nationally, suggesting that operational risk and pre-existing food insecurity compound rather than offset each other. With an official strong El Niño forecast for July-September 2026, we argue that distribution risk management should prioritize the small number of chronically under-served districts rather than uniform national cost controls. The study's main limitation is the absence of household-level welfare outcome data, which restricts causal claims to program delivery rather than beneficiary well-being.